Sinner, on the other hand, has been active on tour this year and broken several records, not least on Masters level. The world No. 1 is now back on his favorite surface and will enter the 2026 US Open as a huge favorite. Who can challenge him? Well, Zverev is next in line in the odds and he’s been in fantastic form all season, apart from all his matches vs Sinner that is… In fact, Sinner has won the last 10 battles between them and holds a massive edge in their rivalry. Djokovic will still be a threat and we can never count him out.
Aryna Sabalenka is favored to become the first woman since Serena Williams to win three consecutive US Open titles. As mentioned, repeating at Slams is hard; winning back-to-back is rare, and three straight enters mythical status. However… her form has been very volatile recently during the clay and grass swings, and I’m not really sure what form she’s in at the moment. Also, the WTA field is far less stratified than the men’s — Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Rybakina and others can all have hot weeks into deep runs.
Implied win probability
| Player | Draw | Odds (dec.) | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | Men | 1.66 | 60% |
| Carlos Alcaraz | Men | 2.85 | 35% |
| Alexander Zverev | Men | 9.00 | 11% |
| Novak Djokovic | Men | 12.00 | 8% |
| Aryna Sabalenka | Women | 3.00 | 33% |
| Iga Swiatek | Women | 6.00 | 17% |
| Elena Rybakina | Women | 6.00 | 17% |
| Coco Gauff | Women | 7.00 | 14% |
Implied probability = 100 ÷ decimal odds; figures carry the usual market overround.